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BEIJING: China’s key economic data this week will likely show a fragile recovery as stringent Covid policies and a property-market slump continue to batter consumer and business confidence.
Official figures today are expected to show a mixed picture for the economy in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) probably expanded 3.4% from a year earlier, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, up from near-stagnant growth in the second quarter, when major cities like Shanghai were in lockdown.
September data for retail-sales growth will likely show a slowdown to 3.5% year-on-year as Covid restrictions kept many people at home.
Industrial production probably stabilised, though, as higher spending on infrastructure drove up demand for materials such as steel.
Investors are watching closely how growth concerns are addressed when Communist Party officials meet in the next few days to select new leaders at their twice-a-decade congress, with President Xi Jinping kicking off the event on Sunday.
Economists predict China’s growth will slow to just 3.3% this year, much weaker than the official goal of around 5.5%. That would be the biggest miss since the government began setting GDP targets in the early 1990s.
Beijing has downplayed the importance of this year’s target, vowing instead to achieve the “best outcome” possible.
A stronger rebound will depend on how soon China eases its zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19.
The International Monetary Fund’s top official in China said last Friday that conditions for lifting Covid rules will probably be in place only in the second half of next year.
The People’s Bank of China has taken a measured approach to monetary easing, cutting its key interest rates twice this year and guiding banks to lower lending rates to spur borrowing.
Room for more aggressive easing is limited by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, with the yuan already having dropped to its weakest levels since 2008 as foreigners sell local assets.
“China’s third quarter GDP will likely show only a feeble recovery after growth stalled the prior quarter’” said Chang Shu and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics.
“Zero-Covid, the property slump and power outages likely held back the rebound. Activity data for September should show signs of production stabilising, while investment picks up with help from government stimulus.”
Elsewhere, a likely further acceleration in United Kingdom inflation, housing data in the United States and a large Turkish rate cut may be among the biggest economic events this week.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deputy governor Michele Bullock will share the bank’s latest views today, following the RBA’s recent pivot to smaller rate hikes, while New Zealand inflation figures will show if the central bank’s aggressive rate hikes are starting to rein in prices there.